Daily Player Prop – 6/4

Who: Denny Hamlin 

What: Race Winner: Enjoy Illinois 300:  +450 FD

When: June 4th @ 3:30PM EST 

Where: World Wide Technology Raceway (WWTR)

Why: Denny Hamlin has everything lining up for him to have a dominant performance today at WWTR. The first thing to look at is last week’s performance. Denny was intentionally wrecked by Nascar’s most popular driver, Chase Elliott (the two have had issues in the past). Denny has always been a guy that wants to prove the doubters wrong. He has been at it with Chase Elliott fans all week and I expect that factor to be additional motivation for him. A mad Denny Hamlin is a scary Denny Hamlin on the racetrack.  Denny has qualified 3rd for this race. Denny is often not a great qualifier so the fact he’s starting 3rd is a sign of how locked in he is. Track position is going to be critical in this race.  Being in a good position to start the race is a huge deal, particularly this weekend.  Denny ranked 6th on the speed charts for practice, although that doesn’t tell the full story, as it is just a one-lap speed. The more important factor to look at is the “lap averages”, which will average many laps together and give you a better read on who is fast throughout the race. When we look at five-lap averages Denny ranks 3rd with an average time of 33.082.  The 1st place driver at 33.001.  When we move to ten-lap averages, Denny starts to shine, as he moves to 1st with an average of 33.128 (2nd place being at 33.179). In my opinion, the most important factor here is Denny’s lack of fall off from his five to ten-lap average (33.082 only decreases to 33.128). When looking at 15-lap averages, Denny’s lead over the second-fastest car increases again, from 33.161 compared to 33.421.  The trend continues when looking at 20-lap averages. Denny’s 20-lap average is 33.196, with the second-fastest car running at 33.505. With his great starting position, I expect Denny to be extremely strong today and he should pick up the win, assuming major mistakes are avoided.