The NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend beckons, ushering in a captivating array of matchups that promise high-stakes drama, seasoned rivalries, and the spectacle of playoff football. Across the gridiron, eight teams collide in intense showdowns, each game laden with its narratives, strategic battles, and star-studded clashes. From the resurgence of underdogs to the fierce confrontations between offensive powerhouses and the quest for redemption, this weekend is a tapestry woven with anticipation, unpredictability, and the relentless pursuit of advancing in the postseason. As the stage is set for gridiron greatness, let’s delve into the enthusiasm and intricacies that define each riveting matchup, igniting the passion of fans and players alike.
(5) Cleveland Browns at (4) Houston Texans
Saturday, Jan. 13 at 4:30 p.m. (ET)
Conference: AFC
Broadcasted on NBC
The excitement of the NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend kicks off with a thrilling showdown between the Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texans. These teams clashed recently on Christmas Eve, where the Browns secured a commanding 36-22 victory. However, with Texans’ QB CJ Stroud returning to the lineup, this rematch promises a different narrative.
In their last faceoff, Joe Flacco of the Texans showcased a quarterbacking masterclass, amassing an impressive 368 passing yards and three touchdowns despite a couple of interceptions. Notably, Browns’ WR Amari Cooper made history by setting a new franchise record with an astonishing 265 receiving yards on 11 catches, accompanied by two touchdowns, marking a standout performance that resonated even in fantasy football circles.
It’s worth noting that Flacco joins the quarterbacks who’ve surpassed 350+ passing yards against the Texans’ defense this season. His recent consistency, averaging 340.5 passing yards per game over four consecutive games, poses a challenge for Houston’s defense.
CJ Stroud’s return is a pivotal factor in this matchup. The rookie QB’s passing prowess is evident, with his season’s home average at an impressive 310.75 pass yards per game. Despite the Browns boasting the league’s top-ranked pass defense, their vulnerability on the road is apparent. While they’ve limited some quarterbacks, those who’ve surpassed the 250-yard mark against them at home aren’t in Stroud’s tier as a passer. This clash will test the Browns against the best passer they’ve encountered this season, raising anticipation for Stroud’s potential impact on the field.
Furthermore, the Browns’ pass defense away from home has shown vulnerabilities, conceding significant yardage and touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Notably, they’ve allowed 11 touchdowns to wideouts on the road this season, making Texans’ WR Nico Collins a player to watch. Despite a subdued performance in the previous meeting against Cleveland, Collins is expected to shine with Stroud back at the reins. His track record at home speaks volumes, averaging 100.7 receiving yards per game with seven touchdowns in 8 home games. Additionally, Collins thrives on big plays, averaging 16 yards per catch at home, mirroring the big-play vulnerability the Browns have displayed in previous matchups.
In retrospect, the Browns’ defense has conceded substantial yardage to WRs in big-play scenarios, with notable high yards-per-catch averages against them. This suggests an opportunity for Collins to exploit the Browns’ susceptibility to explosive plays, much like the performances of other wide receivers who capitalized on big-yardage opportunities against Cleveland.
With Stroud’s return and Collins’ home-field prowess, this rematch promises an intense battle showcasing the offensive strengths against a stout Browns defense, setting the stage for potential fireworks on the field.
Prediction: Browns defeat Texans
(6) Miami Dolphins at (3) Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, Jan. 13 at 8 p.m. (ET)
Conference: AFC
Exclusive coverage on Peacock
Moving forward to the high-stakes showdown between the Miami Dolphins and the Kansas City Chiefs, former Chief Tyreek Hill’s return spices up the atmosphere. The Dolphins gear up with expectations of welcoming back key playmakers, wide receiver Jalen Waddle and All-Pro running back Raheem Mostert, both of whom have been sidelined due to injuries. Their return is crucial for Miami as they face a formidable Chiefs squad.
Reflecting on their recent performance, the Dolphins endured a challenging stretch in their regular season, dropping two out of their last three games, albeit against playoff-caliber teams. Notably, their victory over the Dallas Cowboys was followed by a resounding defeat against the Baltimore Ravens (56-19) and a tight loss in a crucial AFC championship precursor against the Buffalo Bills. Their road record, standing at 2-4 in their last six games, underscores the importance of securing critical wins against formidable opponents.
Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs have displayed a slightly altered dynamic this season, lacking the dominant form they’ve shown in previous years. Notably, their last five home games have been tightly contested, all decided by one score or less, resulting in a 2-3 record. However, their consistent offense, surpassing 300 yards in their last four home games, remains a promising factor.
A notable vulnerability of the Chiefs has been their defense against the run, allowing an average of 4.5 yards per carry, tied for the seventh-most in the NFL. The Dolphins may capitalize on this weakness by aiming to kickstart rookie Devon Achane, who boasts an impressive 7.8 yards per carry this season. Achane’s return to total health presents a potent threat, especially considering his recent performances on the road, averaging 93.6 rush yards per game in the last three away fixtures with five touchdowns.
Regarding the playoffs, Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a force to reckon with, boasting exceptional statistics at Arrowhead Stadium. In his last seven playoff games at home, Mahomes has consistently posted staggering numbers, maintaining a passer rating above 105. In 12 career home playoff games, he averages 302 passing yards per game, holds a TD-INT ratio of 32-5, and a passer rating of 112. Against a Dolphins defense that has yielded over 300 passing yards and four touchdowns each to Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, Mahomes aims to elevate his team’s chances with his postseason magic.
The Chiefs’ tight end, Travis Kelce, is not to be overlooked. In 12 home playoff games alongside Mahomes, Kelce has amassed an impressive 94 receptions and 1040 receiving yards, averaging 86.7 yards per game, and has found the end zone 14 times. With the Dolphins conceding five touchdowns to tight ends on the road this season, Kelce emerges as a potential game-changer for Kansas City.
As the Dolphins seek redemption and the Chiefs aim to reclaim their dominant playoff form, this matchup promises fireworks on Saturday, setting the stage for a thrilling showdown between two determined teams.
Prediction: Chiefs defeat Dolphins
(7) Pittsburgh Steelers at (2) Buffalo Bills
Sunday, Jan. 14 at 1:00 p.m. (ET)
Conference: AFC
Broadcasted on CBS
Next up, the Buffalo Bills host the Pittsburgh Steelers in a clash where the absence of star linebacker TJ Watt casts a shadow over the Steelers.This high-stakes showdown takes place in Buffalo, where the Bills will aim to capitalize on their home advantage against a Steelers team missing their leader.
Watt’s absence has been significant for the Steelers, with the team recording a 1-10 record in the 11 games he’s missed. Without Watt, the Steelers’ defense has struggled, allowing an average of 381.3 yards per game. On the road, the numbers worsen, as they stand winless at 0-7, conceding an average of 414 offensive yards per game. Their October 2022 trip to Buffalo, sans Watt, resulted in a lopsided 38-3 defeat, showcasing the Bills’ offensive prowess with a staggering 552 yards.
Buffalo’s strength at home is evident, boasting a 7-2 record this season, averaging 374.4 yards of offense and 3.6 touchdowns per game. Quarterback Josh Allen and star wide receiver Stefon Diggs have reignited their chemistry, evidenced by Diggs’ recent performance with 12 targets, seven receptions, and 87 yards. Diggs has been a reliable asset for the Bills at home in the postseason, averaging 88.6 yards per game across five career playoff home games with two touchdowns.
Emerging talent in Bills’ running back James Cook has blossomed in recent weeks, averaging 91.2 rushing yards per game in his last six home fixtures, showcasing versatility with an additional 14 receiving yards per game.
Pittsburgh’s quarterback, Mason Rudolph, steps into uncharted territory, making his first career playoff start. Rudolph has displayed solidity since taking over the quarterback position, guiding the Steelers to three consecutive victories, notably against the Cincinnati Bengals and Seattle Seahawks, and securing a playoff berth with a win over the Baltimore Ravens. However, facing Buffalo’s defense at home presents a formidable challenge, as they’ve restricted opposing quarterbacks’ success. Only Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa surpassed 240 yards in Buffalo, highlighting the Bills’ defensive resilience at home.
Notably, the Bills’ pass rush at home has been formidable, averaging over three sacks per game, adding further pressure on Rudolph as he navigates his first postseason start.
The Steelers will face an uphill battle without Watt’s defensive prowess, while the Bills aim to capitalize on their dominant home form. With Allen-Diggs’ renewed chemistry and a robust defensive front, Buffalo seeks to replicate their earlier dominance against the Steelers and advance in the postseason.
Prediction: Bills defeat Steelers
(7) Green Bay Packers at (2) Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, Jan. 14 at 4:30 p.m. (ET)
Conference: NFC
Exciting match on FOX
The NFC Wild Card showdown brings a thrilling clash between the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers. This highly anticipated matchup features two formidable teams seeking to make a statement on the playoff stage.
The Cowboys have been nothing short of dominant at home this season, boasting an impeccable 8-0 record with an offense averaging 425.8 yards, converting 53.2% of third downs, and averaging over four touchdowns per game. At the heart of this impressive home form stands quarterback Dak Prescott, whose sensational performances at Jerry World have been a sight to behold. Prescott commands a staggering passer rating of 120 with 2470 yards and a remarkable TD-INT ratio of 22-3 in eight home games. Averaging 308.8 passing yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game, Prescott’s leadership has been instrumental in the Cowboys’ home dominance.
Fueling the offensive firestorm is All-Pro wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Lamb’s explosive displays at home are highlighted by 73 catches for 955 yards and nine touchdowns in eight games. Lamb’s consistency in finding the end zone, coupled with multiple 100+ yard performances and 11+ reception games, underscores his pivotal role in the Cowboys’ aerial assault. While the Packers boast a sturdy defense against wide receivers, particularly in limiting receiving yards and touchdowns, their vulnerability on the road is evident, conceding significant yardage to opposing wideouts.
Additionally, the Packers have been surging, winning three of their last four road games, showcasing a team gaining momentum at a crucial juncture. Quarterback Jordan Love, making his first playoff appearance, has displayed impressive form since November. Love’s notable performances reflected in his passer rating of 99.2 with 1250 yards and an 11-3 TD-INT ratio in the Packers’ final five road games, showcase his growing confidence and efficiency. In his last five overall games, Love’s numbers have soared further, boasting a 110.1 passer rating with 1,293 yards, ten touchdowns, and one interception, boasting a commendable 71.3% completion rate.
The Cowboys’ home fortress presents a challenge for opposing quarterbacks, with visiting QBs needing help finding their rhythm at AT&T Stadium. With a completion percentage of only 54.4% and an average of 189.1 yards per game, quarterbacks have found it challenging to break through the Cowboys’ defensive stronghold at home.
Notably, the Cowboys’ defense has stifled opposing running backs at home, allowing only a select few to surpass the 50-yard mark and none to breach 70 rushing yards. This stout run defense further complicates the Packers’ ground game strategy.
As history has shown, playoff scenarios can unfold unpredictably, and with the Cowboys holding a 2-2 home playoff record since 2015, each game has been fiercely contested, decided by six points or less, emphasizing the intensity and uncertainty that playoff football brings.
Prediction: Cowboys defeat Packers
(6) Los Angeles Rams at (3) Detroit Lions
Sunday, Jan. 14 at 8 p.m. (ET)
Conference: NFC
Televised on NBC
The upcoming NFC Wild Card showdown features a compelling matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Los Angeles Rams, marking an intriguing encounter with a storyline built on the quarterback swap between these teams a few years ago.
Since the trade that sent Matthew Stafford to the Rams and Jared Goff to the Lions, Stafford has achieved Super Bowl success with the Rams, while this playoff appearance marks Goff’s first postseason journey with the Lions.
The Rams, led by quarterback Matthew Stafford and a potent offensive lineup, have exhibited remarkable dominance when key playmakers like Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams take the field together. Under the helm of coach Sean McVay, the Rams’ offense has showcased prowess, ranking first in multiple essential metrics such as EPA, success rate, and points per drive. Their impressive run of seven wins in the last eight games, averaging 385.6 yards of offense and 3.4 touchdowns per game, showcases their formidable form down the stretch.
However, the Lions are a different beast at home, boasting a 6-2 record this season and averaging 408.8 yards of offense per game. When the Lions find their rhythm, they dominate, evidenced by their 14-point average margin of victory in home wins. Yet, inconsistency has marred their performance, reflecting a stark contrast between their highs and lows.
The Lions’ defense, however, presents vulnerabilities, ranking 27th against the pass, allowing quarterbacks 247.4 yards per game and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. This defensive frailty was notably exposed in a recent matchup where Nick Mullens amassed 396 passing yards against them.
Notably, the Rams’ offensive performance significantly contrasts with and without Kyren Williams on the field during the 2023 season. Williams’ presence substantially boosted the Rams’ offensive capabilities, improving their conversion rates, yardage gains, and scoring rate, underlining his pivotal role as a difference-maker for the Rams.
Furthermore, the Rams’ wide receiver Cooper Kupp’s playoff prowess cannot be understated. With 45 catches for 625 yards and seven touchdowns across six career playoff games, Kupp has been a standout performer in postseason scenarios, averaging an impressive 104.2 receiving yards per game.
On the Lions’ side, emerging star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has made a significant impact, securing touchdowns in four games overall and three of his last four home games. St. Brown’s consistency and ability to exploit opposing defenses make him a potent threat, especially against a Rams’ defense that has allowed significant yardage to receivers on the road.
As the Lions aim to capitalize on their home advantage and the Rams seek to extend their impressive form, this matchup promises intensity and unpredictable twists, showcasing the talents of two teams hungry for playoff success.
Prediction: Rams defeat Lions
(5) Philadelphia Eagles at (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, Jan. 15 at 8:15 p.m. (ET)
Conference: NFC
ESPN/ABC bringing the action
The Super Wild Card Weekend concludes with a thrilling rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, reigniting a playoff rivalry that has seen these two teams clash in recent postseason battles.
The Buccaneers showcased their dominance in the 2021 playoffs, securing a commanding 31-15 victory over the Eagles, led by Tom Brady’s pinpoint passes to Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski, complemented by Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard’s ground attack. Their defense stifled Philadelphia’s mobile quarterback Jalen Hurts, limiting his ground game and intercepting him twice.
This season, the Eagles returned to Tampa in Week Three, securing a hard-fought 25-11 victory. While Hurts faced interceptions again, he contributed offensively with a rushing touchdown and a scoring pass to Olamide Zaccheaus. Notably, the Eagles outperformed the Buccaneers on the ground, amassing 201 rushing yards compared to Tampa Bay’s 41.
Both teams have experienced shifts in momentum since their last meeting. The Eagles have struggled, recording a 1-5 record in their previous six games, including three consecutive road game losses. In contrast, the Buccaneers have found their rhythm, tallying a 5-1 record in their last six outings and highlighting their strength with a 3-1 record in home games.
The quarterback performances have been on opposite trajectories, with Baker Mayfield trending upwards, averaging 277.5 pass yards and two touchdowns per game, boasting a completion rate of 70% and a passer rating of 111 in his last four games. Conversely, Jalen Hurts has faced challenges, averaging 166.5 pass yards, one touchdown, and an interception per game over the same span.
Both teams have vulnerabilities in their pass defenses. The Eagles rank poorly in yards and touchdowns allowed to wide receivers, particularly outside their home stadium. While allowing fewer touchdowns, Tampa Bay needs to improve in yielding yards to wideouts. This sets the stage for potential offensive showcases from star receivers like Mike Evans for the Buccaneers and potentially AJ Brown for the Eagles, depending on his injury status.
However, the Eagles’ recent losses to teams with fewer wins, the uncertainty around AJ Brown’s injury status, and the loss of safety Sydney Brown to a torn ACL raise concerns about their playoff readiness.
The matchup promises intrigue as the Buccaneers aim to build on their recent success while the Eagles seek redemption and stability heading into this crucial postseason.
Prediction: Buccaneers defeat Eagles
