🔒NBA Rundown – 01/04/2024

NBA Rundown – 01/04/2024

Philadelphia @ Brooklyn

• Time: 4:00 PM

Philly:  Ranks 8th worst against RA, 7th worst against LC3, last against ATB three

Brooklyn:  Ranks last against LC3

Brooklyn ranks last against the left corner three but Philly really doesn’t shoot from the corner much.  Tyrese Maxey leads the team in this category over the last two weeks but Brooklyn defense PGs very well and I’m not sure he’s going to have crazy success from beyond the arc.  I’ll be staying away from Philly in this spot.

We should probably focus on ATB three point shooting for Brooklyn, considering Philly ranks dead last against the category.  The four guys that are in play would be Cameron Johnson, Noah Clowney, Jalen Wilson and Cam Thomas, but we need to dig a little deeper there.  

Cam Thomas is coming back from injury so we will need to see if he suits up.  Even if he does, we could see fewer minutes than usual, so I’m probably staying away from him for the time being.

Philly defends opposing PFs pretty well, so while I think Clowney is an intriguing option, I don’t think this is the spot to take him.

Cam Johnson and Jalen Wilson are the SFs for Brooklyn and they are going to be the best guys to target.  Wilson doesn’t get a ton of volume but he’s been shooting well and could knock down 3-4 in this matchup.  He shoots much better on his home court, which is a plus for him in this game.  I think I prefer Wilson to Johnson and will be sticking with that play for the Nets.

Minnesota @ Detroit

• Time: 5:00 PM

Minnesota:  Ranks 3rd worst against RC3

Detroit:  Ranks 2nd worst against ATB three

We are looking at ATB threes for Minnesota and would like to target the PG and SG positions, which lines up well here.  Ant Edwards and Donte Divincenzo are going to be your options.  

Ant Edwards has continued to shoot the three ball well all season, averaging over 40%.  I would say he’s good for 4+ threes in this one.

Divincenzo actually intrigues me more though.  His volume has been excellent, as he’s continued to see his role increase in this offense.  He shoots a little worse on the road, but I think he could knock down 4-5 here and he’s my favorite option for the Wolves.

Another easy research spot for Detroit, as we are really only concerned with RC3 shooting.  

Malik Beasley is going to be the guy.  The matchup is decent and Beasley’s volume has been crazy good.  He’s shooting around 40% from deep on the season and has hit 5+ threes in 7 of his last 9, so I’m assuming the prices offered won’t be great, but he could end up knocking down 5-7 threes in this game.

Phoenix @ Indiana

• Time: 5:00 PM

Phoenix:   Ranks 6th worst against non-RA, 8th worst against LC3, 6th worst against RC3

Indiana:  Does not rank in bottom 10 of any category over last 8 games

Pascal Siakam is averaging over 7 potential assists per game over his last 3 and Phoenix is a team that allows high assist numbers from opposing PFs.  He had 3 assists against this Suns team earlier this season, but I think he has the potential to get 5-6 in this one.  

Indiana doesn’t rank in the bottom of any defensive category over the past two weeks.  They do allow damage to opposing SGs and PFs, so you’re looking at Devin Booker and Kevin Durant to lead the team in scoring.  Durant just had 37 against this Pacers team a few days ago, so he’s probably the guy you want, but it’s not something I will be taking.

Indiana actually takes a lot of shots from the non-RA, so we need to consider that. Their struggles are typically against opposing PFs and Cs.  Siakam has a good chance to lead the team in scoring and he could get some looks from deep.  I think he has a chance to knock down 3 threes.  

Obi Toppin could also end up with 3-4 threes.  He went 2-5 from deep a week ago against Phoenix and the big change here is that he shoots over 41% on his home court, compared to 31% on the road, so I think is a pretty solid look for 3+ threes.  

Myles Turner could also knock down 3 threes, but my order of preference would be Toppin, Siakam and then Turner.  

Utah @ Miami

• Time: 6:00 PM

Utah:  Ranks 3rd worst against mid-range, 2nd worst against LC3, 8th worst against RC3, 3rd worst against ATB three

Miami:  Ranks 4th worst against non-RA

Utah is allowing the 3rd most assists to opposing PGs, while Tyler Herro is averaging nearly 12 potentials per game right now, so this could be a spot where he really racks up some nice numbers in the assists department.  He’s hit 9+ assists in 3 of his last 4 games.

Collin Sexton is going to be your best bet for the Jazz, as he is the primary scoring option from the non-RA.  Not something I’m interested in playing.

Miami doesn’t shoot much from the mid-range, so let’s look at their three point options.

While H. Highsmith is currently the best corner three point shooting option on the team, the Jazz really do well against opposing PFs, so I would look elsewhere.  

I think option 1 is Tyler Herro and option 2 is Duncan Robinson.

Herro is shooting over 40% from deep on the season.  Volume isn’t crazy high, but his efficiency has been really good, so he could knock down 4-5 in this spot.  4 is typically his ceiling.  

Duncan Robinson is very spotty and his volume is inconsistent.  He has games where he fires a ton but he also has games where he ends up with 3-6 attempts.  We will need his attempts to be closer to 10, but if he shoots around 10 of them, he could certainly end up with 4-5 as well.  It’s a good matchup, so I lean over on his prop.

New York @ Chicago

• Time: 6:00 PM
• Broadcast: NBA TV

New York:  Ranks 4th worst against RA

Chicago:  Ranks 3rd worst against RA, 4th worst against ATB three

Look for OG Anunoby to have a good rebounding game here.  He recorded 9 in a game against the Bulls earlier this season, as the Bulls are allowing the 2nd most rebounds to opposing PFs.  He could be good for 8+ in this spot and might even be worth a shot for a double double.  

Chicago is allowing the 6th most assists to opposing PGs, so look for Jalen Brunson to be racking up some assists here.  Brunson is averaging nearly 12 potentials per game over his last 3.  He had 8 in a game against Chicago earlier this season and I think that’s a good outlook for what we might get here.  It’s not a hammer spot, but it’s there if you want it.  

This is a really nice outlook for Karl Anthony-Towns, who leads the team in RA scoring and is 2nd in ATB three point shooting over the last 2 weeks.  The Bulls really struggle against opposing centers.  Towns had 46 points, including 6 threes against Chicago earlier this season, so it looks like a dynamite spot to me.  I prefer taking him for threes but I don’t think you would be wrong taking his points prop.

I think Josh Hart is your 2nd best option and he could flirt with 20 points.  

My guess is that Coby White leads the game in scoring for the Bulls, but I think his ceiling is limited because I don’t see it being a huge three point game for him.  He should be able to score in the RA, but I won’t be taking anything for the Bulls here.

Portland @ Milwaukee

• Time: 6:00 PM

Portland:  Ranks 7th worst against RA, 2nd worst against mid-range, 9th worst against LC3, 9th worst against ATB three

Milwaukee:  Ranks 4th worst against mid-range, 7th worst against ATB three

This is a big time spot for Dame Lillard assists, as no team is allowing more assists to opposing PGs than Portland.  Dame is averaging 20+ potentials over his last 3.  The biggest concern here is the blowout potential, but it looks like a home run spot on paper if no blowout occurs.  

Brook Lopez has a good chance for 3+ blocks in this game against a Portland team that allows more blocks to opposing centers than any team in the NBA.

I don’t see anything for Portland and I think this one has big blowout potential, so I would be careful with Milwaukee props as well.

If you are going to play something for Milwaukee, I would look at Bobby Portis for both points and threes.  I think Portis could flirt with 20 here and he should have opportunities to knock down 2-3 threes.

Denver @ San Antonio

• Time: 6:00 PM

Denver:  Ranks 7th worst against non-RA, last against mid-range, 4th worst against LC3 

San Antonio:  Ranks 6th worst against mid-range, 10th worst against RC3

San Antonio allows the 2nd most rebounds to opposing SFs, so we could see a better than expected rebounding performance from Michael Porter Jr here.  He could get 8+.

This is a nice spot for Wemby to rack up assists, as Denver is allowing the 2nd most assists to opposing centers over the last two weeks. I think Wemby is a strong play for 4 assists with upside to 6.  

Chris Paul is averaging 17+ potential assists per game and now faces a bottom five Denver defense in terms of opposing PG assists allowed.  He could be good for 10+ here, although it is a bit risky with his assist volatility this season.  

Denver allows the 2nd most blocks to opposing centers, so we should probably take a look at Wemby for blocks here.  Over his last 5 games he has 3 with 6+ blocks, including a 10 block game a little over a week ago.  His data against Denver from last season is a little spotty, but he did have a 4 block game and a 9 block game in 2 of the 4 matchups.

I see two scoring options for the Spurs in D. Vassell and Wemby.  Denver doesn’t allow a ton of damage to opposing centers, so I’m riding with Vassell here, as the Nuggets allow the most points and 3rd most threes to opposing SGs.  He could flirt with 25 points and could knock down 3-4 threes in this one, as options will be limited for San Antonio.

I don’t really love anything for the Nuggets, but N. Jokic should be your primary scoring option, mainly due to his mid-range scoring ability.  I probably won’t play it personally.

Memphis @ Golden State

• Time: 6:30 PM

Memphis:  Ranks 6th worst against RA

Golden State:  Ranks 2nd worst against non-RA, 5th worst against mid-range, 8th worst against ATB three

The Warriors were blown out the last time these teams played, with B. Podziemski leading the Warriors in scoring.  I think A. Wiggins and D. Schroder are your best options for the Warriors, but I won’t be playing any of them.

I like Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr as scoring options for the Grizzlies.  

Both S. Aldama and L. Kennard hit 5 threes the last time these teams played.  I think Kennard could have three point success again in this one, as he’s been shooting well.  He could get 4-5.  

I’ll probably stick with Kennard for threes and move on from this game.  

Atlanta @ LA Clippers

• Time: 8:30 PM
• Broadcast: NBA TV

Atlanta:  Ranks 2nd worst against RA, 4th worst against RC3, 6th worst against ATB three

LAC:  Does not rank in bottom 10 of any category over last 8 games

I won’t be taking anything for Atlanta.  

It’s a pretty great spot for James Harden to get some threes.  Atlanta ranks dead last when it comes to defending opposing PG threes, and Harden can shoot from both the right corner and ATB.  He could get 5+ in this matchup.

Norman Powell will also find volume from beyond the arc in this game, but his prices are just too high to peak my interest at the moment.

Lastly, look for I. Zubac to have a really nice game in terms of scoring.  He should be able to score in the paint against an Atlanta defense that allows the 2nd most points to opposing centers.  He should flirt with 20 points in this one, and could even hit 25 for the first time this season.  He’s come close about a dozen times but hasn’t hit that number yet.  This would be the game to do it. 

Cheat Sheet – 1/4

Pts

I. Zubac – 20 Points

K. Anthony Towns 30-25 Points

K. Durant 30-35 Points

Rebs

M. Porter Jr 8 Rebounds

Asts

P. Siakam 5-6 Assists

D. Lillard 10 Assists

C. Paul 10 Assists

J. Brunson 10 Assists

3 Pt

L. Kennard 4-5 Threes

K. Anthony-Towns 4-5 Threes

Jalen Wilson 3-4 Threes

D. Divincenzo 4-5 Threes

B. Portis 2-3 Threes

J. Harden 4-5 Threes

O. Toppin 2-3 Threes

M. Beasley 5-7 Threes

Steals

N/A

Blocks

B. Lopez 2-3 Threes

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