Crystal Ball Chronicles: Predicting the Top 10 MLB Free Agents Landing Spots in 2023

In this exhilarating prelude to unveiling the predictions, let’s set the stage! The spotlight gleams brightly on baseball’s unicorn, Shohei Ohtani, the harbinger of transformation. Alongside him stands the intriguing newcomer Yoshinobu Yamamoto, while familiar stalwarts like Cody Bellinger add weight to the 2023 free agency class narrative. As we embark on this journey, anticipation swells, and the hunt for their destined landing spots intertwines with the intrigue of the top 10 free agents. With these luminaries leading the way, the stage is set for a thrilling exploration—a tantalizing glimpse into the art of prediction within baseball’s ever-fluid landscape.

1. Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH (age: 29)

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers, known for their meticulous financial strategies, sit on the brink of a transformative move as they position their payroll at a reasonable $142,094,973 for the upcoming 2024 season. Shohei Ohtani, a transcendent force in baseball, emerges amid this calculated financial landscape. Ohtani’s potential move to the Dodgers is more than a mere acquisition—it’s a paradigm shift. His 2023 season was breathtaking: a .304 batting average, 44 home runs, and an OPS of 1.066. Yet, it’s his dual-threat prowess that truly captivates. His Breaking Run-Value (95) and Fastball Run-Value (75) underscore his unparalleled dominance on the mound.

The Dodgers’ deliberate reduction in payroll over recent years hints at a meticulously designed strategy, potentially setting the stage for Ohtani’s arrival. It’s not just about acquiring a star player; it’s about embracing a transformative force capable of reshaping the Dodgers’ trajectory. His impact, both on and off the field, could send ripples across the league, redefining the essence of roster construction and signaling a new era of baseball excellence for the Dodgers.

Other possibilities: San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP (age: 25)

Prediction: New York Yankees

Enter the New York Yankees, a franchise with a storied history and an unyielding pursuit of excellence. Their sights are set on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the 25-year-old sensation whose meteoric rise in the Japanese league has turned heads across the baseball landscape.

Yamamoto’s track record is staggering—a career 1.72 ERA over seven seasons, highlighted by a mind-boggling 1.16 ERA in 2023.

Brian Cashman, the Yankees’ GM, witnessed Yamamoto’s brilliance firsthand during a historic no-hit performance, cementing the Yankees’ relentless pursuit. For the Yankees, Yamamoto isn’t just another addition to the rotation; he represents a transformative figure. His potential transition from the Orix Buffaloes to the iconic pinstripes symbolizes a strategic shift, signaling an intent to redefine the team’s pitching dynamics and reignite their pursuit of baseball’s ultimate prize.

Other possibilities: New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals

3. Blake Snell, LHP (age: 31)

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Blake Snell’s narrative in the 2023 season epitomizes resilience and dominance. Despite a challenging start, his transformation into a titan on the mound was remarkable. Over his subsequent 23 starts, Snell posted a staggering 13-3 record paired with a minuscule 1.20 ERA, emerging as one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball during that stretch.

Snell’s statistical resurgence reveals his refined mastery and ability to control games. His remarkable 11.70 K/9 rate showcased his capacity to baffle hitters, illustrating his dominance on the mound. Moreover, his adeptness at inducing ground balls with a 44.4% rate limited opponents’ offensive opportunities. His proficiency in crucial moments, exemplified by an 86.7% LOB%, highlighted his composure under pressure.

The Phillies see Snell as a potential solution, recognizing his ability to fortify their rotation. His pitching prowess allows the Phillies to bolster their strength and add depth to their arsenal.

Other Possibilities: Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds

4. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B (age: 28)

Prediction: Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs, amid a managerial transition from David Ross to Craig Counsell, have their sights set on retaining Cody Bellinger. Bellinger, a pivotal figure in their lineup, is a prime target for the North Siders. His return to the Cubs’ roster could offer stability and offensive prowess, addressing the team’s needs in center field and at first base.

Statistically, Bellinger’s impact in 2023 with the Cubs was notable, showcasing his resurgence as one of baseball’s premier hitters. His 26 home runs and 97 RBIs exemplified his offensive capability. Furthermore, his underlying metrics, such as xwOBA (.331) and xSLG (.437), revealed a significant improvement from previous years, underlining an elevation in offensive performance. Bellinger’s refined plate discipline, evidenced by his reduced chase rate from 31.7% to 20.1%, signifies his evolving offensive impact.

With the Cubs eyeing solutions in their lineup, Bellinger’s potential return to the North Side allows the team to bolster their offensive capabilities.

Other Possibilities: New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants

5. Aaron Nola, RHP (age: 31)

Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals

The looming free agency season has Aaron Nola at its epicenter, a durable and consistently adept pitcher drawing interest from several teams. The St. Louis Cardinals emerge as a compelling fit among the potential destinations. The Cardinals’ pitching woes in 2023 highlighted a critical need for a reliable starter, and Nola’s profile aligns seamlessly with their requirements.

Nola has maintained durability and consistency throughout the past few seasons, evidenced by his ability to pitch 180+ innings in the last five full seasons. This is a testament to his reliability on the mound. Despite a slightly down year in 2023, his ability to remain dependable and pitch 193 2/3 innings remains an enticing attribute for a team in dire need of a number-one starter. The Cardinals’ interest in Nola isn’t mere speculation. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported their interest in Nola alongside other prominent pitchers, reflecting the Cardinals’ intent to secure a top-tier arm this offseason. The team’s pursuit of high-caliber starters departs from past offseason strategies, indicating a genuine purpose of a marquee name.

Nola’s fit within the Cardinals’ framework goes beyond statistics; he embodies the cardinal virtues of consistency, durability, and reliability. While concerns about his performance in 2023 linger, his postseason rebound and track record speak volumes. With a glaring need to bolster their starting rotation after a lackluster 2023, the Cardinals seem primed to make a significant move for someone of Nola’s caliber.

Other possibilities: Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees

6. Josh Hader, LHP (age: 30)

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies’ quest for bullpen prowess has reached a critical juncture, and Josh Hader emerges as the linchpin to fortify their relief corps. The NLCS loss exposed the dire need for robust bullpen depth, and Hader represents a transformative addition. His arrival would solidify the closer role for the Phillies over the next 4-5 seasons, elevating the team’s bullpen to a formidable level.

Picture a three-headed monster in the Phillies’ pen—Hader, Jose Alvarado, and Seranthony Dominguez—a trio capable of striking fear into opposing lineups. The prospect of Hader donning Phillies colors isn’t just about having “a” closer; it’s about securing one of baseball’s elite, a proven force in the late innings. The uncertainties surrounding Craig Kimbrel’s future after a disappointing NLCS performance have opened the door for a new closer. Reports from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggest the Phillies are earnestly eyeing Hader. His credentials speak volumes: a minuscule 1.28 ERA, 33 saves, and an impressive 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings during his tenure with the Padres. Hader’s consistency throughout his career—a 2.50 ERA and 165 saves over seven seasons—underscores his reliability in high-pressure situations.

Beyond regular-season dominance, Hader boasts postseason prowess, appearing in 16 playoff games with a remarkable 1.37 ERA and five critical saves. His track record in high-stakes October baseball adds another dimension to his value, something the Phillies need to improve in their recent postseason endeavors.

Other possibilities: Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs

7. Sonny Gray, RHP (age: 34)

Prediction: Atlanta Braves

Sonny Gray emerges as a prime target for the Atlanta Braves, a pitcher with an exceptional 2023 season likely to secure the AL Cy Young runner-up position behind Gerrit Cole. Reports suggest a long-standing interest from the Braves in Gray, stemming from trade interests predating 2018, highlighting a mutual attraction between the pitcher and the team.

Gray’s 2023 campaign with the Minnesota Twins was nothing short of astonishing. He showcased mastery on the mound, boasting a stellar 2.79 ERA and an impressive 2.83 FIP across 32 starts. His pitch distribution, utilizing a diverse repertoire—featuring fastball, slider, curveball, sinker, cutter, and changeup—speaks to his versatility and ability to keep hitters off balance. His remarkable strikeout rate of 24.3%, coupled with a modest 7.3% walk rate, reflects his control and dominance.

Notably, Gray’s pitching run values underscore his impact. With a standout fastball run value of 17 and a pitching run value of 36, Gray’s ability to generate positive outcomes and control games was exceptional. His proficiency on the mound indicates an invaluable addition to any rotation, especially for a team like the Braves seeking stability and quality innings. The Braves faced significant pitching setbacks, deploying 17 different starters throughout the season, signaling a dire need for a reliable, high-caliber starter. Gray’s potential addition could be a linchpin in overhauling and strengthening the Braves starting rotation.

Atlanta’s enduring interest in Gray signifies a readiness to invest in a pitcher of his caliber, aligning with their aspirations to fortify their pitching staff for a more promising season.

Other possibilities: Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets

8. Jordan Montgomery, LHP (age: 30)

Prediction: Texas Rangers

Fresh off a World Series triumph with the Texas Rangers, Jordan Montgomery emerges as a vital piece in the Rangers’ pitching puzzle, especially amid uncertainties regarding the health of top-tier starters Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. Montgomery’s recent success with the Rangers in 2023 showcased a transformation, demonstrating his prowess and reliability on the mound.

Montgomery’s history with the Yankees and Cardinals portrayed a talented pitcher often deprived of adequate run support. However, his tenure with the Rangers showcased a different narrative. In 2023, Montgomery tallied a 7-3 record with a stellar 2.83 ERA and 75 strikeouts across 17 appearances, combining regular-season and playoff performances—an exceptional feat that underscored his impact in high-stakes games. His postseason contributions were equally impressive, boasting a 3-1 record with a 2.90 ERA and 17 strikeouts in six appearances. Montgomery’s ability to elevate his game during crucial playoff moments solidified his status as a reliable asset for the Rangers.

Delving into his pitching run values reveals his contributions. With a remarkable pitching run value of 19 and a fastball run value of 14, Montgomery showcased his capability to influence positive outcomes on the mound. His pitch repertoire—highlighting his fastball velocity, average exit velocity, strikeout, walk, and chase rates—demonstrates his effectiveness and control during the 2023 season. Reviewing Montgomery’s career statistics reveals an evolution in his performance, culminating in a stellar 2023 campaign. His consistency in maintaining a decent strikeout rate and improved control and effectiveness positions him as a valuable asset for any rotation, especially for a team like the Rangers aiming for stability and quality innings.

With Montgomery’s recent success and proven capability to thrive in high-pressure situations, his potential return to the Rangers is pivotal in solidifying their pitching staff.

Other possibilities: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals

9. J.D. Martinez, DH (age: 36)

Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

J.D. Martinez, a seasoned designated hitter, stands as an invaluable source of right-handed offense, consistently maintaining a high level of performance throughout his career. His offensive prowess, highlighted by a remarkable 135 wRC+ and 33 home runs during his one-year deal with the Dodgers in 2023, reinforces his stature as a formidable hitter in the league. However, Martinez’s 2023 season was somewhat marred by injuries, limiting him to 113 games. Despite this, his production remained stellar, buoyed by impressive Statcast metrics, showcasing a 98th percentile in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Nevertheless, his increased strikeout rate, rising significantly to 31.1%, might raise concerns among potential suitors.

The allure of Martinez as a free agent lies in his hitting prowess and experience. His consistency against tough competition within the AL East, batting .297 with 92 homers and 290 RBIs in 418 games, underscores his ability to thrive against formidable opponents. His comfort and success at the Rogers Centre, boasting a .303 batting average with seven home runs in 39 games, further solidify his potential fit with the Toronto Blue Jays. While age and defensive limitations might limit Martinez to a shorter contract, his mentorship potential and offensive contributions make him an attractive option, especially for teams seeking offensive firepower in a thin market for quality bats.

Other possibilities: Arizona Diamondbacks, Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants

10. Matt Chapman, 3B (age: 31)

Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

Matt Chapman, presents a powerful combination of defensive prowess and impressive offensive metrics. His Statcast ratings are nothing short of elite, boasting a 98th percentile in Barrel %, signifying his consistent ability to find the ball’s sweet spot. Chapman further showcases a perfect 100th percentile in Hard-Hit %, displaying his knack for generating quality contact with impressive power. Additionally, his ability to consistently make hard contact places him at the 90th percentile in Sweet-Spot %, underscoring his capacity to produce both power and quality hits. These exceptional metrics cement Chapman as an enticing asset for teams seeking a dependable third baseman capable of offering a potent offensive threat.

The allure for the NL champion Diamondbacks lies in Chapman’s skill set, which aligns perfectly with their defensive-first approach. His addition would fortify the infield defensively and inject a significant boost to their offensive output from the third base position. Chapman’s consistent ability to find the sweet spot on the bat and generate robust, quality contact brings a new dimension to the team’s offensive arsenal. For the Diamondbacks, securing Chapman’s services represents an opportunity to upgrade the hitting prowess at the hot corner while maintaining their defensive standards.

Other possibilities: Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals