Fantasy Football Alert: Two Running Backs to Trade Away Now!

We’re in the thick of the 2023 season, and you know what that means – it’s time to make some strategic moves. Fantasy football is a rollercoaster ride of emotions, and today, we’re going to talk about two running backs who’ve been turning heads, but not always for the right reasons. It’s that bittersweet moment when you realize it might be time to say goodbye and maximize their trade value before things slide downhill. So, grab a seat in the fantasy football stadium because we’re about to dissect why parting ways with these players could be a game-changer for your team!

Raheem Mostert: Time to Cash In

In Week 2 against the New England Patriots, Mostert continued to hold a significant role with 73% of snaps, while Achane had 5 rushing yards while holding a 10% snap share. Mostert had an impressive 121 rushing yards in this game.

The situation changed in Week 3 when the Dolphins played the Denver Broncos. Mostert’s snap share dropped to 51%, and Achane burst onto the scene with 41% of the snaps, rushing for over 200 yards. This marked a significant shift in the running back dynamics.

Week 4 featured a tough divisional matchup against the Buffalo Bills, where Mostert’s usage further declined to 28% of snaps, while also fumbling twice. Achane continued to outsnap Mostert at 39%, rushing for 101 yards and adding value in the passing game with 3 receptions for 19 yards.

As we analyze this data, it’s evident that Achane’s emergence has impacted Mostert’s role in the offense. The significant drop in Mostert’s snap share, coupled with Achane’s impressive performances, raises questions about Mostert’s long-term fantasy value.

Now, let’s dive deeper into Achane’s metrics to shed more light on this situation:

• Efficiency Metrics: Achane boasts impressive efficiency metrics, including league-leading actual yards per carry at 8.7, number one in the NFL. This metric measures his ability to gain yards per carry effectively. It indicates his explosiveness and effectiveness in the running game.
• Yards per Touch: Achane’s efficiency extends to his overall yards per touch, where he stands at a fantasy-worthy 10.3. This metric showcases his ability to make the most out of every opportunity, whether running the football or catching passes.
• Juke Rate: With a juke rate of 33.3%, Achane ranks third in the NFL. This statistic illustrates his elusiveness and knack for making defenders miss, a quality highly coveted in fantasy running backs.
• Production Premium: Achane’s production premium stands at an impressive +30.2, ranking second in the NFL. This metric reflects his contribution to the Dolphins’ offense above expectation. Simply put, he’s delivering far more value than anticipated.
• Expected Points Added (EPA): With an EPA of 14.1, Achane ranks second in the league. EPA measures a player’s impact on his team’s expected points scored. In Achane’s case, he’s been a catalyst for the Dolphins’ offensive success.

As you can see, Achane’s metrics depict an explosive and highly efficient running back making the most of his opportunities. Adding to Mostert’s concerns, veteran running back Jeff Wilson is set to return from IR in the coming weeks, potentially further diminishing Mostert’s role in the offense. It’s becoming increasingly clear that cashing in on Mostert might be a strategic move for fantasy managers.

Khalil Herbert: Beware of the Hype

Khalil Herbert of the Chicago Bears stood out in Week 4, playing a season-high 79% of the snaps against the Denver Broncos, who rank last in defense. He amassed an impressive 122 yards on 22 touches, leading many fantasy managers to believe he’s the real deal.

However, it’s crucial to look beyond the big week. The Bears will likely be underdogs in their upcoming games, which could limit Herbert’s opportunities. In Week 4, rookie Roschon Johnson saw his lowest usage of the season, with only 16 snaps (22%). In Weeks 2 and 3, Herbert’s snap shares were 60% and 55%, respectively. He will unlikely consistently maintain the 78% snap count he saw in Week 4.

Let’s break down some more metrics to gauge Herbert’s potential:

• Efficiency Concerns: Despite the big week, Herbert’s efficiency metrics are concerning. He ranks 29th in the NFL in yards per carry and has evaded only four tackles, placing 37th among running backs.
• Limited Upside: Herbert’s production premium is +-6.3, ranking 33rd among running backs. His carry rates, such as stock-to-carry and base-front carry rates, could be more impressive.
• Stock-to-Carry Rate: This metric measures the percentage of carries a running back takes compared to the total team carries. Herbert’s 13% rate ranks 32nd in the NFL, indicating a limited share of the rushing workload.
• Base-front Carry Rate: It signifies the percentage of carries that occur when the offense faces a traditional front (not in shotgun formation). Herbert’s 21.7% rate ranks 48th in the NFL, suggesting a lower involvement in standard rushing situations.

As fantasy managers, separating one standout performance from the overall picture is essential. Selling high on Herbert after a good week might be a wise move, especially considering the upcoming schedule and his efficiency metrics.

So, there you have it – two running backs who have shown promise but might not be the long-term studs they initially seemed. As the fantasy football landscape evolves, making calculated decisions about when to buy, sell, or hold players can be the key to your team’s success. Don’t get caught up in the hype – stay informed and make those savvy moves.