🔒NBA Rundown – 01/02/2025

NBA Rundown – 01/02/2025

Indiana @ Miami

• Time: 5:30 PM

Indiana:  Does not rank in bottom 10 of any category over last 8 games

Miami:  Ranks 4th worst against non-RA

Tyler Herro has back to back games of 9+ assists and is averaging 13+ potentials per game over his last 3.  He gets the 2nd worst team in the league against opposing PG assists in Indiana and could have another 10 assist outing here.  He has played Indiana twice this season, only recorded a high of 5 assists between those two games, but the Miami offense does look a little different now when compared to how it looked for those games.  Probably not something I’m playing, but worth writing up.

Indiana doesn’t rank in the bottom of any defensive category over the past 8 games.  I typically don’t like to target opposing teams in this position and I won’t here, but the spots you would be looking to target would be the SG and PF, so Duncan Robinson/Terry Rozier and H. Highsmith.  Like I mentioned, I won’t be taking either.

TJ McConnell is Indiana’s best shooter from the non-RA, but his minutes have been sporadic.  P. Siakam is your best bet to lead the Pacers in scoring, but honestly I don’t really love anything from this game and will look at other spots on the slate.

Boston @ Minnesota

• Time: 5:30 PM
• Broadcast: TNT

Boston:  Ranks 8th worst against non-RA, 9th worst against mid-range

Minnesota:  Ranks 3rd worst against RC3

I think your three point shooting options for Boston are Derrick White and Payton Pritchard.  I think I’ll go with White.  His volume has been awesome lately and he went 4-9 from deep against Minnesota earlier this season.  He’s the Celtics top right corner three point shooter and he should get opportunities in this game.  White for 4-5 threes.

This isn’t really something that popped during my initial research but I just noticed that the Celtics are allowing more threes to opposing PFs than any team in the NBA over the last 2 weeks, so you might look at J. Randle or Naz Reid for threes.  I actually prefer Naz Reid, mainly because he is shooting over 40% from deep on his home court.  He could get 3-4 here.

Ant Edwards is probably your top option for the Wolves, generally speaking, but Boston is allowing the fewest points to opposing SGs in the NBA over the last two weeks.  That data doesn’t always matter when talking about a player like Edwards, but I think I’ll stick with Naz Reid threes for Minnesota and call it good.  

Brooklyn @ Milwaukee

• Time: 6:00 PM

Brooklyn:  Ranks last against LC3

Milwaukee:  Ranks 4th worst against mid-range, 7th worst against ATB three

No team is allowing more left corner threes than Brooklyn right now.  I think Gary Trent Jr is your best bet for threes, as he is shooting an incredible 47% from deep on his home court and Brooklyn is allowing the 2nd most threes to opposing SGs over the last two weeks.  Trent Jr could get 3-4 in this spot.  

I would say all signs point to Cameron Johnson to lead the Nets in scoring in this one, but it’s not a spot I love, mainly because I don’t think he will have major success from deep, which limits his ceiling.  I’m not touching the Nets here.

LA Clippers @ Oklahoma City

• Time: 6:00 PM

LAC:  Does not rank in bottom 10 of any category over last 8 games

OKC:  Ranks 2nd worst against RC3

James Harden could be good for 8+ rebounds against an OKC team that allows more rebounds to opposing PGs than any team in the NBA right now.  Harden had 11 rebounds against this OKC team earlier this season and we could also be on triple double watch for him.

The only other thing I’m looking at in this game would be guys on the Clippers who shoot well from the right corner.  Your options are either Amif Coffey or Kris Dunn.  I would roll with Coffey again, although I don’t love his matchup quite as much today.  He could get 2-3.  

Philadelphia @ Golden State

• Time: 8:00 PM
• Broadcast: TNT

Philly:  Ranks 8th worst against RA, 7th worst against LC3, last against ATB three

Golden State:  Ranks 2nd worst against non-RA, 5th worst against mid-range, 8th worst against ATB three

I would say Joel Embiid is a pretty good look for Philly as far as points go.  He could knock down 2-3 threes along the way.  I don’t love the spot, but am interested in his threes depending on the price.

Philly ranks last at defending the ATB three over the last two weeks and a lot of damage typically comes from opposing PGs, so I’m very interested in Steph Curry for threes in this one.  He’s shooting over 43% from deep on his home court and this is one of those games where he could knock down 7-8 from deep. 

Portland @ LA Lakers

• Time: 8:30 PM

Portland:  Ranks 7th worst against RA, 2nd worst against mid-range, 9th worst against LC3, 9th worst against ATB three

LAL:  Ranks 3rd worst against non-RA

This is a pretty nice spot for D. Ayton to rack up rebounds.  He had 19 in a game against the Lakers earlier this year.  He could get 13+ in this spot.

Austin Reaves is averaging nearly 16 potential assists over his last 3 games and now he gets the worst team in the NBA at defending PG assists from the opposition in Portland.  Reaves has two straight games of 10+ assists, including a 16 assist performance against the Kings.  He could get 10+ in this one and I think it’s one of the better looks on the slate.

I don’t see anything else I like for Portland outside of Ayton rebounds.

I like Max Christie for 3-4 threes.  He’s shooting nearly 43% at home, can shoot from both the right corner and ATB and Portland allows three point damage from opposing SGs.

Rui Hachimura is also a candidate for three pointers, as the Blazers really struggle against opposing SFs and Hachimura is shooting 46% at home.  He could get 3+ with upside to 5.

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