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NFL – Week 2 – Risk and Reward Report

NFL – Week 2 – Risk and Reward Report

Thursday, September 12, 2024:

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (7:15 PM ET, Prime Video)

Miami’s offense may struggle to pass against a solid Bills defense this week.  I think they could exploit the linebacking corps that the Bills deploy, so Jonnu Smith and De’von Achane might be the best options but Jonne didn’t get a ton of route participation in Week 1, so he’s risky.  If I had to throw a dart at one of the WRs, I would pick Tyreek Hill.  I think it’ll be tough sledding for Waddle.  Tua has historically struggled against the Bills.  I don’t love the rushing game for the Dolphins either, because although the Bills DLine isn’t great, the Dolphins OLine is weaker.  Overall, tough matchup for the Dolphins.  

On the other side, I think Khalil Shakir could have a nice game here.  Bills TE Dalton Kincaid is my favorite receiving option in this game for the Bills.  He should have a nice bounce back game in Week 2.  James Cook could also be in line for a good game as I rank the Bills O-Line quite a bit higher than the Dolphins D-Line.  Kincaid, Cook and Shakir are my Buffalo plays for this game. 

Sunday, September 15, 2024:

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (12:00 PM ET, FOX)

I think CeeDee Lamb has a massive game in this one.  He should line up nicely against this Saints secondary, with Alontae Taylor drawing the start as slot CB.  The Panthers were absolutely throttled by the Saints in Week 1, but the best WR was…..Adam Thielen from the slot with 3 catches and 49 yards (3-49 is an elite statline with that Carolina team).  Marshon Lattimore played 621 defensive snaps last year and lined up as a slot CB 28 times (4%).  I find it hard to believe he’s going to shadow CeeDee, a guy who runs 60%+ of his routes from the slot.  It’s too bad Jake Ferguson will miss this game, because he would’ve been lined up for a good game.  I don’t think I trust Luke Schoonmaker (Cowboys TE2) to make an impact, but you could look there if you like risk.  The Cowboys will also have an advantage in the trenches, but Dallas’s run game is ugly, so I will stay away there.  CeeDee to the moon.

For the Saints, I’m looking at Chris Olave.  R. Shaheed will have tough matchups for most of this game but Olave could thrive, especially in a game where the Saints will likely need to throw to keep up.  The Cowboys D-Line is good, so the only play on Kamara is through the passing game.  Personally staying away from that.  Olave is the only guy I want for the Saints.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (12:00 PM ET, FOX)

I think this game could be a shootout.  Tampa Bay matches up very nicely on offense.  Mike Evans could eat, as he always seems to do, but C. Godwin is my favorite of the group, as he should line up against Amik Robertson for much of the game.  Yeah, the guy who just gave up 14 catches, 110 yards and a tuddy to Cooper Kupp in Week 1.  I don’t expect much from the Bucs run game, but if I had to play something I would take Bucky Irving over R. White.  Bucky was highly efficient with his carries in Week 1 and R. White was about as inefficient as can be, which seems to be a trend.  Rachaad could certainly be involved in the passing game if TB is losing, but I’ll probably stay away from TB’s running backs.  

This is a great spot for an Amon-Ra St. Brown bounce back.  He could thrive out of the slot in this game.  Sam LaPorta has a decent match, but I like the WR matchups more.  Arguably the best matchup on paper belongs to Jameson Williams, who was a huge BOOM in Week 1.  I think you could go back to the well for that spot in Week 2.  The biggest advantage in this game for the Lions is with their run game.  They could dominate in the trenches.  David Montgomery was fairly quiet in Week 1, but he ended up with a respectable 17-91-1 stat-line.  Jahmyr Gibbs had 11 carries for 40 yards and 1 TD.  Monty is going to get you a nice reliable stat-line, but Gibbs could be a home-run.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers (12:00 PM ET, FOX)

Interesting game here, now that Jordan Love is out.  Michael Pittman could have a nice game based on matchup.  I think A. Mitchell could be this week’s Alec Pierce and catch a bomb or two.  He will at least get a few opportunities, if I had to guess.  The Colts have a top 10 O-Line, but the Packers have a top 10 D-Line, so I’m not sure I would touch the Colts rushing game.  A. Mitchell would be my favorite play on that side of the ball.  

For Green Bay, I don’t know if I can even do a proper write-up.  Malik Willis will start at QB and the Colts have a solid defense.  I would stay away from Jayden Reed.  C. Watson and/or R. Doubs are the best options for the Packers, but they might really struggle to move the ball.   If I had to chose one, I would go with Doubs, as he operates better against zone defenses, but there are too many questions marks so I’ll stay away from this side of the ball completely. 

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (12:00 PM ET, CBS)

Garrett Wilson should dominate in this game.  I think he draws C. Awuzie for much of the game and he has a huge matchup advantage if that’s the case.  The Titans run game is middle of the pack, but they looked good against Chicago in Week 1.  Breece Hall could certainly break off a big run or two, but he’s not my favorite RB on the slate.  Mike Williams is also in play for a couple of deep balls, but I’m wary of playing him right now, as we don’t have a great feel for snap count as he rehabs his injury (he only played 9 snaps in Week 1).

For starters, I have little interest in Pollard or Spears in terms of rushing.  The Jets rush defense is elite, and although I like both Titans RBs this season, this is not the matchup to target.  I think the Jets lead the majority of this game, so if I was going to target anything, it would be the Titans passing game, but that’s also a difficult matchup.  Your best bet is likely playing Pollard/Spears receptions, as Levis may be checking down a lot in this game in an effort to move the ball down the field. 

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (12:00 PM ET, CBS)

The 49ers did a great job on MNF, shutting down a good Jets offense.  This game should be easy work for them.  I really don’t like anything on the Minnesota offense.  My favorite target, from a prop betting standpoint, would be Johnny Mundt receptions.  That’s the only spot that even slightly sticks out on paper and it’s a very risky play. 

The 49ers offense could feast.  I prefer Brandon Aiyuk to Deebo Samuel.  I think this is Aiyuk’s coming out party this season.  Juwan Jennings also has a nice matchup from the slot, so you could dabble there, but with the 49ers likely leading and slowing down the game in the 2nd half, I’m not sure the juice is worth the squeeze.  I’m not big on Kittle in this game.  Outside of Aiyuk, your best bet it to stick to the 49ers rushing game.  Whether it’s CMC or Jordan Mason, I think the 49ers are going to run all over this Vikings D.

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (12:00 PM ET, FOX)

I think this is a poor matchup for Seattle on paper.  DK Metcalf is my favorite target on the offense, but do we really trust that this passing game will be clicking after their Week 1 performance?  The Pats D-Line isn’t great, so we could see a nice game from Kenneth Walker.  The Bengals actually ran the ball well on the Pats in Week 1, but for some reason they abandoned it in the 2nd half in route to losing the game.  The Seahawks won’t abandon it, so Walker could get his 2nd straight 100 yard rushing game.

The Patriots are not a great team to bet on.  They might sneak out a few wins this season, but outside of R. Stevenson, who doesn’t have a good matchup this week, I don’t know if anything is worth playing.  If I absolutely had to pick something, I would go with D. Douglas receptions.  His matchup is decent and I expect NE to be losing. 

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (12:00 PM ET, FOX)

Bold prediction here.  Danny Dimes throws for 300+ and 2+ TDs.  I actually like this matchup for the Giants offense.  Malik Nabers, if given the opportunity, could go off.  Wan’Dale Robinson could rack up receptions.  Darius Slayton could catch a bomb.  The only thing I don’t like are the Giants TEs, which wouldn’t have been a concern either way.  Danny Dimes and Malik Nabers for the W.  

This is a good spot for a Terry McLaurin bounce-back, but not sure I trust his connection with Daniels at this point.  The Giants have a good rushing defense, so I am off Brian Robinson.  Austin Ekeler could catch some passes out of the backfield, but honestly not a great matchup for him either.  I don’t love Jayden Daniels from a rushing standpoint, but at this point, not sure I can plant that flag in this game after recording 16 carries in Week 1.  All in all, I don’t love the Commanders matchups and I think the Giants can win this game. 

Los Angeles Chargers at Carolina Panthers (12:00 PM ET, CBS)

Llad McCokey will have the best receiving matchup against this Panthers defense that was blown up by D. Carr and the Saints in Week 1.  It’s a like-not-love spot for me, but it’s the best spot on paper.  The biggest advantage for the Chargers will be in the run game.  JK Dobbins could have another excellent game and that would be the play for me if I was picking something for the Chargers offense.  

Nothing for the Panthers.  They are bad.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (12:00 PM ET, CBS)

I’ve written about Jerry Juedy a few times this off-season and after leading the team in targets in Week 1, I think this could be another sneaky good spot for him.  Deshaun doesn’t look good and this isn’t a great matchup for him, but maybe Jeudy breaks off a long one.  

Gabe Davis could do well and might catch a bomb.  Davis is very boom/bust and I’ve always stayed away from him for whatever reason, but if you like the player, this is a decent spot to play him.  I don’t love the matchup for Evan Engram.  The Browns D-Line is decent, so I don’t expect a huge game from T. Etienne.  

All in all, I think this is a tough game to predict. 

Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (12:00 PM ET, CBS)

I don’t like much for the Raiders offense in this game.  Poor matchup and poor showing in Week 1.  B. Bowers was the only semi-silver lining and he could do well again, although the Ravens just shut down T. Kelce in Week 1, so I think it’s risky.  The Ravens linebackers are fast and historically have been good in pass coverage.  

Zay Flowers has the best matchup on paper.  He’s not someone I have interest in, but the Ravens seem dedicated to force feeding him the ball once again this season.  Outside of that, I don’t see a ton.  I expect Baltimore to win, but the Raiders D-Line is decent, the Ravens O-Line isn’t great, the backfield is a RBBC, it’s not a great matchup for Andrews/Likely, etc….Maybe Lamar has a good rushing game?  Hard to tell, but I don’t see a lot on paper worth playing. 

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (3:05 PM ET, FOX)

Great game on paper, from a betting/DFS standpoint.  Cooper Kupp has another great matchup, so there’s that.  Demarcus Robinson has a good matchup.  Tyler Johnson, who will likely take Puka Nacua’s snaps, has a good matchup.  Johnson caught 5 balls for 79 yards in Week 1 once Nacua departed.  Hell, I would even consider Jordan Whittingham for player props.  If you don’t know who that is, look him up.  The preseason darling Sean McVay has talked up on multiple occasions.  This is also a premier spot for a Kyren Williams bounceback game.  He might be my favorite RB on the slate.  

For the Cardinals, we are looking at…..Marvin Harrison Jr.  This could be his breakout game. He will split time lining up against Cobie Durant and Tre’Davius White and this could be a situation where he can get open.  It’s also a great spot for Trey McBride, who had an underwhelming performance in Week 1.  The Cardinals could find success on the ground, but I think the Rams can put up points in this spot and the Cardinals are likely to be playing from behind.  I prefer Michael Wilson over Greg Dortch, but would take Harrison over both, and it’s not a close call for me.  From a season-long perspective, I’m still higher on Wilson than Dortch, although it didn’t play out that way Week 1.  I would stick to Harrison Jr and McBride in this game. 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (3:25 PM ET, CBS)

This write-up could vary, depending on if we get Justin Fields or Russell Wilson at QB.  Pat Surtain will probably shut G. Pickens down, regardless so I’m out on Pickens.  Pat Friermuth is a good look at TE, but only if Fields is QB.  Russell doesn’t throw to TEs much and Fields has one of the highest rates of throwing to TEs out of all NFL QBs.  The Steelers should stick to the run for much of the game.  I hope Jaylen Warren gets more work, because I’m not a huge Najee Harris fan, but at this point, not sure if we can trust Warren’s usage.  It’s a dart throw if you take it, based on Week 1 usage.  

**Update:  Fields is the starting QB this week.  P. Friermuth is in play.  

The Denver offense looked like an offense with a rookie QB in Week 1, but they kept it close against a superior Seattle team.  So D. Vele made some waves in week 1 with 8 catches.  However, he was targeted 8 times, an efficiency rate that obviously won’t remain…and he only finished with 39 yards.  Not something I’m looking to target.  The bigger takeaway in that game for me was Cortland Sutton’s usage.  Bo Nix was trying to get him the ball, and although the connection wasn’t there, I think it can develop.  Unfortunately, Sutton may be shadowed by Joey Porter Jr this week, so I’m not sure this is the week we go in on that play.  The Steeler run D is elite, so I’m not touching Javonte Williams.  Jaleel Mclaughlin could catch some passes, but honestly, not a great matchup for him either.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (3:25 PM ET, CBS)

Historically, the Bengals and Chiefs have put on great games.  I don’t think that’s the case here.  If Tee Higgins plays, he may be worth a look.  I’m staying away from Ja’marr Chase and basically this whole Cincy offense, outside a potential Higgins play.

Now onto the juggernaut Chiefs offense….I like Rashee Rice.  Xavier Worthy has some upside, but I don’t think he puts up the same numbers he did in Week 1.  Travis Kelce should eat and is probably my favorite TE play on the slate.  I. Pacheco could also be in for a big game, as the Chiefs O-Line could dominate the Bengals D-Line.

Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (7:20 PM ET, NBC/Peacock)

Navigating the Texans WR trio will be a daunting weekly task.  In week 1, the offense showed that all 3 WRs can eat, especially considering that Joe Mixon had a HUGE game.  Mixon looked great.  For starters, I am off of Nico Collins.  Jaylon Johnson is really good and will eliminate a lot of the big throws, which is what Collins needs to put up his big stat lines.  Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs are equal for me this week.  Dell should line up against Tyrique Stevenson for much of the game, and although Stevenson was in lock-down mode in Week 1, he has shown a tendency to let up big plays in his short career, something that Dell could exploit.   Stefon Diggs should get Kyler Gordon for most of the game.  I like Gordon as a player, but Diggs could really thrive in this game.  Joe Mixon could have a really big game once again.  I’m staking my flags on Mixon and Diggs but I won’t be surprised if Dell goes off.  

It’s hard to write-up the Bears right now.  They have so many options on offense, but Week 1 clearly showed that they aren’t quite there yet as a unit.  R. Odunze is likely to miss Week 2.  Keenan Allen has a good matchup and he was Caleb’s favorite target in Week 1.  I wouldn’t count out DJ Moore either.  I think we could see some fireworks from those 2, especially compared to what we saw in Week 1.   I’m off of the Bears RBs.  The Texans D-Line is too good. 

Monday, September 16, 2024:

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (8:15 PM ET, ESPN)

AJ BROWN SZN.  Great matchup for the superstar.  He should have a monster game.  Outside of Brown, S. Barkley is the only other guy I’m looking at.  The Eagles look like they are going to use him a lot, and this is a nice matchup for Barkley.  The Eagles offense is more up-tempo this year, and extra plays = extra opportunities.  I really like this offense moving forward.  

So….on paper, this is a decent matchup for the Falcons offense.  Do they bounce back from an abysmal Week 1 performance to keep it semi-competitive?  That’s the question you have to ask yourself.  If you answered yes, here’s the breakdown.  Drake London is in play.  He should face off against Darius Slay and he could outperform projections.  I think Darnell Mooney is a no for me.  Ray-Ray McCloud is in play after his surprising Week 1 usage.  Kyle Pitts is also in play.  I’m not out on Pitts this season.  Week 1 was a tough matchup and Pitts had several catches called back for penalties.  I still think he can thrive with Cousins at QB and this is an okay matchup to do so, especially considering the Falcons should be losing.  Bijan is a no for me in the rushing department, although he could do okay in the passing game.  

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