NFL Week 4 Takeaways: Info Nuggets for Fantasy Football and Prop Betting

Week 4 of the NFL is in the books! It’s important to monitor the week-by-week changes that occur from NFL teams regarding playing time, target share and overall personnel decisions. Being “in the know” helps make informed decisions, whether it be for prop betting or fantasy football. Below are several nuggets of information that may help you build your game plan for Week 5.

• Alvin Kamara (NO) was targeted 14 times in his return this past weekend, catching 13 passes for 33 yards. He caught 56% of the passes that Derek Carr completed on the day. He won’t get this production every week, but he is going to be a pass-catching machine in this New Orleans offense.
• Kenny Pickett (PIT) is dealing with a knee injury and has played poorly this season. It would not be a major surprise if Mitch Trubisky got the start in Week 5. This opens up a few interesting possibilities. For one, D. Johnson’s usage (targets/catches/yards) go up when Trubisky is under center. Allen Robinson would also be a name to watch, due to his chemistry with Trubisky from his time on the Bears. Robinson is on the field a LOT (91% routes run in Week 4) and could be very overlooked if Trubisky gets the nod at QB.
• James Conner (ARI) is not one of the players who comes to mind when thinking of exciting weapons in the NFL, but his efficiency should not be overlooked. Conner is averaging 5.1 YPC on the season and is getting the majority of the work in the Arizona backfield. In Week 4, he received 11 carries for 52 yards, which was his lowest mark of the season, but the blowout against SF must be taken into account. He still averaged 4.7 YPC against an extremely tough SF front. This week, he faces a Cincinnati defense that has been atrocious against the run, allowing the 2nd most yards in the NFL to date.
• Bijan Robinson (ATL) has been as advertised during the first four games of his career. He is averaging 6 YPC, 2nd best in the NFL amongst all runners with at least 50 carries. He played 75% of the snaps in Week 4 and earned 67% of the carries. T. Allgier is still a weekly threat to get touches, but Bijan has really started to pull away in the RB-by-committee approach that the Falcons deploy. This week he faces a Houston Texans defense that has given up the following:Week 2: Zack Moss – 18 carries, 88 yards
  Week 4: Najee Harris – 14 carries, 71 yards
  Week 3: Travis Etienne – 19 carries, 88 yards
  Week 2: Zack Moss – 18 carries, 88 yards
• Gus Edwards (BAL) played 75% of the snaps and received 50% of the carries in Baltimore’s Week 4 beatdown of the Browns. Melvin Gordon and Justice Hill combined for 6 carries. The backfield looks to be Edward’s to lose. This week, the Ravens head to Pittsburgh to take on a Steelers defense that has struggled mightily against the run.
• Khalil Herbert (CHI) looked to be losing his edge as RB1 in Chicago until his Week 4 performance, where he played 79% of the snaps, took 60% of the rushing attempts and ended up with 18 carries for 103 yards. Roschon Johnson saw a large decrease in workload. Herbert may be a usable option in Week 5 against the Commanders, a team who has been very “middle of the road” against the run.
• De’von Achane (MIA) led the team in carries for the second straight week. The numbers may be slightly skewed, as Miami lost in a blowout a week after blowing out Denver, but I think Achane may be the RB1 in this offense at this point. He has been explosive, averaging 11.4 YPC on his first 27 carries in the league. This week he faces the NY Giants in a game that could get out of hand fast. I think Achane leads the team in carries for a third straight week.
• Breece Hall (NYJ) continues to be a high risk/high reward player in a shaky NY Jets offense. Hall has carried the ball 32 times this season and is averaging 6.6 YPC. He has runs of 83 and 43 yards in the first 4 games and faces a Denver defense who ranks dead last in the league in rushing yards allowed. The Broncos allowed Khalil Herbert to rush for 103 yards in Week 4 and De’Von Achane to rush for 203 yards in Week 3.
• D’Andre Swift (PHI) is the RB to own in Philly. He has led the team in snap count three weeks in a row, leads the league in YPC with players who have 50+ carries and faces a Rams team that has out-performed preseason expectations this season. I expect this game to be high-scoring, and closer than people might think and the Eagles should have their best players on the field until the final whistle.
• D. Henry (TEN) is still the bell-cow rusher for the Titans. Tyjae Spears has gotten a lot of hype this season for the number of snaps he is being given in TEN, but D. Henry is still RB1, by far, in this TEN offense. Despite getting 60% of the snaps, Henry took 73% of the carries for the Titans in Week 4. He hasn’t gone below 73% of the carries in any game this season. Henry’s carry count is highly dependent on game-flow. In games where the Titans win, he has at least 22 carries per game. In games the Titans are losing, he hasn’t gone over 15 carries. Tennessee heads to Indy this weekend to take on the Colts. The spread is even on the game, so we could see opportunity here. The Titans have won four straight games against the Colts, dating back to 2021.
• De’Andre Hopkins (TEN) has almost twice as many targets as any other player for the Titans this season. He is averaging 4.5 catches per game and has an ADOT (average depth of target) of nearly 14 yards. This week he faces a Colts defense that has allowed the fourth most receiving yards in the NFL. He should get a matchup opportunity against 7th round rookie CB Jaylon Jones.
• Garrett Wilson (NYJ) is finally finding chemistry with QB Zach Wilson and the situation looks promising. Wilson ran routes on 98% of the Jets passing plays in Week 4 and was targeted on 32% of his routes, up from a respectable 20% in Week 3. This week the Jets face the Denver Broncos 2nd worst passing defense in the league. Wilson may get shadowed by Pat Surtain, but he also may get an opportunity against Demarri Mathis, PFF’s worst graded CB in the league.
• Davante Adams (LVR) has yet to receive less than 35% of the target share through four weeks. That is elite usage. In Week 4, we saw rookie QB Aiden O’Connell target Adams 13 times. In Week 3, Adams was targeted 20 times. Las Vegas faces Green Bay on Monday Night Football this week. Green Bay has been good against the pass but I like Adam’s chances to have another great game against his former team.
• Puka Nacau (LAR) streak of excellence has continued, as he finished Week 4 with a 28% target share, 9 catches, 163 yards and 1 TD. Kupp is eligible to return this week, so this will be a situation to monitor moving forward. I don’t think the Rams can keep Nacau off the field at this point, but it will be interesting to see what happens to his workload when Kupp returns. I think he is still a play in all formats.