🔒NFL | Wild Card Weekend | Risk and Reward Report

NFL | Wild Card Weekend | Risk and Reward Report

Saturday, January 11, 2025:

LA Chargers @ Houston

• Time: 3:30 PM
• TV: CBS, Paramount+
• Line: LAC -3
• O/U: 42.5

Both pass defenses rank in the top 8.

The Chargers rank 11th best in rush defense, while the Chargers rank 14th best.

The Texans have shut down opposing TEs all season, so I don’t expect much from Will Dissily. 

While I think Dalton Schultz could have an impact, his connection with CJ Stroud is just off so I don’t think there’s anything to play there.  Schultz hardly ever gets over 5 catches and there just isn’t enough juice for me.

The Texans also shut down opposing RBs in the pass game, so I don’t expect JK Dobbins to catch many balls.

Joe Mixon, however, has a very promising receiving outlook against a Chargers defense that does allow opposing RBs to get involved in the pass game.  I think Mixon gets 4-5 catches in this game.

Say what you want about Quentin Johnson, but dude had 13 catches on 14 targets for 186 yards.  I’m not just looking at him because he has the “hot-hand” following last week, but he draws the best matchup in a game where I don’t expect the RB or TE to get involved much.  Llad McConkey draws a much tougher matchup in the slot and I think Johnson could over-achieve again in this game.  I may run a reception ladder from 5-7 on him, depending on what prices we get.  

I’m not really interested in any of the Texans WRs.  Of course Nico Collins could eat, but the matchup is tough and they have limited legitimate options, meaning the defense will probably key in more on Nico.  For that reason, I’m sticking with Mixon for receptions and I also think he could have a nice game on the ground.  It wouldn’t shock me if he flirts with 100+ rushing yards.  

Oh, it wouldn’t surprise me if J. Herbert rushes for 40+ on the ground either. 

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

• Time: 7:00 PM
• TV: Prime Video
• Line: BAL -10
• O/U: 43.5

This will be the 3rd time we have seen this matchup this season.  

Both teams rank very good against the rush, with Baltimore ranking #1 overall.  We did see Derrick Henry explode against this defense in the last matchup, rushing for 162 yards, but I probably won’t be going to the well twice on that play.  He could end up with around 100, but I think the Steelers do a much better job this time around.

Both teams rank in the bottom 8 in pass defense and I think this game will be won through the air, rather than on the ground.  

I don’t expect Lamar Jackson to be able to rush much either, although he is always a threat.  Pittsburgh has done a really nice job against opposing QBs who can run this season.

The first thing that I see that I like is Jaylen Warren for 4-5 receptions.  He has 4 and 5 catches in two games against the Ravens this season Pittsburgh will likely be losing late and the Ravens do allow damage to opposing RBs who can catch, so I think everything aligns with this one.  

Both teams allow damage to opposing TEs, but the Steelers rank 2nd worst in the category, so I’m very interested in Ravens TEs.  

Remember in the first game of the season when everyone expected Mark Andrews to make a splash and all of a sudden I. Likely showed up out of nowhere?  I kind of feel like that’s where we are here.  I’m taking Likely for 5+ receptions and think he could score a TE as well.  

As much as I want to take Pat Freiermuth, Baltimore has done a really good job against him twice this season and I just don’t know if it’s worth playing.  I’ll probably stay away, but I don’t think it’s a terrible look and he could get 4-5 catches.  

I’m getting the feeling that Zay Flowers, who left the game early last week, may not be ready to go this weekend.  In that case, we would be looking at R. Bateman and N. Agholor.  I like Bateman as a player and he could pop, but honestly, I’m just not sure here.  I’ll probably stay away from both and just ride with Likely for the Ravens offense.  

George Pickens once again draws the most favorable matchup for the Steelers and he’s going to have to be the hero if Pittsburgh is going to win this game.  I don’t see any other scenario.  He had 8 catches for 89 yards earlier this season against Baltimore and he’s going to need a similar outing, if not more, in this one.  I think you could take both his receptions and yardage props.  

Sunday, January 12, 2025:

Denver @ Buffalo

• Time: 12:00 PM
• TV: CBS, Paramount+
• Line: BUF -8.5
• O/U: 46.5

Both teams rank bottom 12 against the pass and both teams rank top 12 against the rush, with Denver ranking 3rd best.  

I don’t think either QB will have a ton of success rushing and I’m off all of the RBs in terms of rushing.  

Both teams rank in the bottom 7 in terms of allowing opposing RB receptions, so that’s the first angle we need to dive into.  

Javonte Williams may seem dead, but he’s not.  The Broncos just employ a RBBC approach but the script here most likely favors Williams the most, as I would argue he is the biggest receiving threat in the RB room.  He could catch 5+ passes in this one, especially if the Broncos trail late, which I expect.  

James Cook could also play an important role in the receiving game for Buffalo and has upside to 5 receptions, although if the Bills are winning in the 2H, that probably removes some of the value on this play.  We want garbage time stats on reception props.

Dalton Kincaid has some upside in this game.  He has had an odd season, to say the least, recording 44 catches compared to the 73 he had last year.  Yeah, he played 3 less games, but that doesn’t come close to making up the difference.  He just isn’t as involved and for that reason, I think I’ll stay away.  

I really like K. Shakir out of the slot in this game.  Shakir is J. Allen’s safety blanket and he draws a pretty good matchup.  I think he ends up with 6-8 catches in this one.

Don’t sleep on Amari Cooper if he is good to go for this game.  Cooper is currently away for the team for a “personal family matter”, so we don’t know what to expect.  

It’s all about C. Sutton for the Broncos passing game. He draws the best matchup and is clearly the favorite target for rookie QB Bo Nix.  He has 3 straight games with 5 catches, but I expect Denver to be losing late and I think he could jump back up to 7-8+ catches like we were consistently seeing earlier this season.  Denver is going to have to pass.  

I do expect D. Vele to be involved and he could get 4-5 catches, but I much prefer Sutton.

Green Bay @ Philadelphia

• Time: 3:30 PM
• TV: FOX
• Line: PHI -4.5
• O/U: 44.5

Philly has the league’s best rush defense, so I wouldn’t touch Josh Jacobs.  They also rank top 10 against the pass.

Green Bay ranks top 7 against the rush and slightly above average against the pass.  

Once again, I think passing is going to be the key in this game, particularly for Green Bay, but it could apply to Saquon and the Eagles rushing game as well.  

We haven’t seen Saquon be overly involved in the passing game this season, but he may play a bigger role in that realm this weekend.  Green Bay is one of the very worst teams when it comes to letting opposing RBs get involved in the pass game, so Barkley could get 4-5 catches here.  I think at a minimum, he gets 3.  

I also like Dallas Goedert to get involved in the passing game and I think he has some pretty good upside.  

My favorite spot for Philly belongs to DeVonta Smith.  His usage has really sky-rocketed over the last quarter of the season and I think he’s going to get 6-8 catches and may be the MVP for the Eagles in this game.  

AJ Brown draws the toughest matchup, so I’ll probably fade him.

I’m not sure I love anyone for Green Bay and I think this is a major uphill battle for them, but D. Wicks is probably your best bet.  I don’t see T. Kraft or J. Jacobs having much of an impact and J. Reed and R. Doubs both have extremely tough matchups.  Wicks could really out-perform projections here, especially if the Packers are losing late like I think they will be.  I think he has upside to 7-8 catches.  

Washington @ Tampa Bay

• Time: 7:00 PM
• TV: NBC, Peacock
• Line: TB -3
• O/U: 50.5

High total with a close spread.  Vegas is expecting a shootout.

Tampa is one of the worst teams against the pass in the NFL, ranking 4th worst.  Washington ranks 3rd best.

Washington ranks 3rd worst against the rush though, while Tampa ranks 4th best.

So basically we have completely polar opposites.  Washington will be able to pass at will and Tampa will be able to run at will.

Fire up Bucky Irving.  He should eclipse 100 yards in this one.

Both QBs could find success on the ground.  The matchup isn’t elite for either guy, but neither matchup is terrible.  I think this holds true specifically for Washington, as I don’t think they will be able to get much going with a traditional ground attack (ie running backs).  Jayden Daniels could rush for 100+ yards and I wouldn’t be surprised at all.  

Here’s one you haven’t heard in a while.  I expect A. Ekeler to play a major role in the Commanders passing attack, especially if Washington is losing late like Vegas projects.  He could rack up 6-8 receptions against a Tampa defense that allows the 6th most receptions to opposing RBs.  

Zach Ertz is another Commander who could out-perform and I could see him getting 6+ receptions in this spot.  

The only WR I like for Washington is Terry McLaurin, which is awesome, because he is the guy you want in this situation.  He draws the best matchup and has been J. Daniels favorite target all season.  I expect him to catch a deep one at some point in the game.  He has 5 catches of over 50 yards this season, so that’s an angle you could look at.  

All of the Tamps WRs have decent matchups.  It’s hard to fade Mike Evans here and he should play a major role in this game.  

Jalen McMillian’s time has come though.  He has 4 straight games of 5 receptions and has a nice matchup here.  I expect him to end up with 5-6 receptions in this one and he has been a TD machine, scoring 7 TDs over his last 5 games, so he could be in play for a tuddy.  

Monday, January 13, 2025:

Minnesota @ LA Rams

• Time: 7:00 PM
• TV: ESPN, ABC, ESPN+
• Line: MIN -1.5
• O/U: 46.5

Both Minnesota and LA are susceptible to being beaten through the air.  Minnesota ranks 5th worst against the pass, while the Rams rank slightly below average.

Minnesota has the league’s 2nd best rush defense, while LA ranks in the bottom 10.

I expect Aaron Jones to garner a much larger workload this week against a defense that struggles against the run.  Jones should get around 20 carries and could go for 100+ yards on the ground.

I wouldn’t touch Kyren Williams.

The Rams have been bad against opposing TEs this season, allowing the 3rd most receptions, so we could be looking at a nice game from TJ Hockenson.  

While the receptions haven’t been there in recent weeks, the targets have been, and he could pop for 6-7 catches in this game.

Both Justin Jefferson and J. Addison have good matchups as well though.  I prefer Addison at this point, as defenses key in on Jefferson every week and Addison has been the beneficiary.  He seems to have a great connection with Darnold and that’s the angle I would be looking at.  He could go for 100+ through the air.

For the Rams, it’s all about Puka Nacua.  If they want any chance to win this game, Puka better have a big game because I think the roles of Kyren Williams and Cooper Kupp will be minimized here.  Puka for 10+ catches and 125+ yards is the play.  

Cheat Sheet – Wild Card

QBs

J. Herbert 25-50 Rushing Yards

J. Daniels 75-100 Rushing Yards

RBs

J. Mixon 4-5 Receptions

A. Ekeler 6-8 Receptions

Bucky Irving 100-110 Rushing Yards

S. Barkley 4-5 Receptions

Javonte Williams 4-5 Receptions

J. Warren 4-5 Receptions

WRs

J. Addison 6-8 Receptions

J. Addison 100+ Receiving Yards

Terry McLaurin Longest Reception 40/50/60

Puka Nacua 8-10 Receptions

Puka Nacua 100-125 Receiving Yards

D. Smith 6-8 Receptions

D. Smith 100+ Receiving Yards

D. Wicks 5-7 Receptions

C. Sutton 7-9 Receptions

G. Pickens 7-9 Receptions

G. Pickens 100+ Receiving Yards

Q. Johnson 5-8 Receptions

TEs

TJ Hockenson 6-8 Receptions

Z. Ertz 5-7 Receptions

I. Likely 5-7 Receptions

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