Tyler Herro Hand Injury | Analysis from a Doctor on the Miami Guard’s Return in the NBA Finals

The Miami Heat are in the middle of a historic run as just the second 8-seed to advance to the NBA Finals in league history (1999 New York Knicks). Numerous role players have stepped up along the way, with remarkable performances from the likes of Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, and Duncan Robinson – all three of whom are undrafted. One of the largest factors in their rise was the injury to Tyler Herro.

In the first game of the playoffs against the 1-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, Herro fractured two bones in his right hand while diving for a loose ball. The team has been without their 20+ PPG guard since, but he is aiming for a potential return to play in Game 3 of the Finals per Chris Haynes: https://twitter.com/chrisbhaynes/status/1663383043044970497?s=46&t=C0csDaJoRVdo00wW3gAuPA

The question is: “How much will the Heat involve Herro when he does return?”

On the medical side of things, Herro does have some potential limitations. He suffered fractures of the third and fourth metacarpals of his right (dominant/shooting) hand. These are the bones that attach to the base of the middle and ring fingers. He had a surgical procedure called open reduction internal fixation – meaning plates and/or screws were inserted to align the fractured bones. This was done in an attempt to speed up recovery, as the implanted plates/screws provide enough added stability that rehabilitation can begin at an earlier time in the recovery process.

At this point, it is likely the bones have healed, which means Herro’s activity level will likely be determined by how much weakness and stiffness is in the hand. There are reports that he is still suffering from discomfort and swelling after shooting drills, which is to be expected after immobilization for six weeks (think of this swelling/discomfort as the pain one gets after lifting weights for the first time in a long time). This can be controlled fairly easily with ice, medications, etc., but can still be a slight hinderance during intense activity (such as a Finals game).

In a positive light, there is little-to-no evidence to suggest any long-term negative impacts from this injury. He likely continues to get better and better from a medical perspective. Further positive analysis is that Herro’s shooting motion primarily relies on his index finger, which is why he was able to shoot a decent shot seconds after suffering the injury in the first postseason game. I expect that he won’t really have any limitation in his shooting motion at all. The pain and swelling will impact other aspects of the game more heavily – such as dribbling and defensive contact (although I am optimistic as he has progressed to contact drills as of this morning). For these reasons, I think we’ll see him utilized in shorter bursts in a catch-and-shoot role off of the bench for Game 3. There is potentially some value in his threes prop (odds not listed at the time of this writing). For Game 4 and beyond, we’ll have a better idea of what to expect following his performance on Wednesday night.

However, the non-medical perspective is equally as important here, and much more difficult to predict. Herro himself stated that he “does not want to come back and mess up the rhythm of the team.” This is critical to consider, as the Heat have made it to the Finals in his absence after all. The aforementioned role players have all stepped up and have continued to fill Herro’s place in the lineup with success. Analysts from across all NBA media have been debating this topic – whether Miami would be able to continue their success with Herro back in the lineup. Honestly, there is no way of knowing until the games are played. However, my personal belief is that the Heat organization would be thrilled to have him back – especially based on how vigilant they have remained in his rehabilitation process. I think he would fit perfectly fine back into the rotation for the remainder of the Finals – especially if we see some more cold nights from players such as Max Strus and Caleb Martin. Tyler Herro is too talented of a basketball player to keep out of the lineup.